Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza Yet Struggles With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing summit is another development in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer produced little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

William Williams
William Williams

Cybersecurity specialist with over a decade of experience in data protection and cloud infrastructure.